Excerpts from previous status reports, by subject
Removed on Novemer 17, 2005
Iran’s nuclear violations “within
the competence of the Security Council”
On September 24, the International Atomic Energy Agency condemned
Iran for its nuclear transgressions. Citing “Iran’s many
failures and breaches of its obligations,” the Agency’s
governing board voted to send Iran to the U.N. Security Council, without,
however, specifying when it would happen. The resolution urged Iran
to suspend “uranium enrichment-related activity,” to reconsider
the construction of a heavy water reactor and to ratify the IAEA’s
Additional Protocol allowing for enhanced inspections. It also called
on Iran to answer outstanding questions about its procurement of centrifuge
equipment and the history of its nuclear work. If Iran fails to comply
with these demands before the IAEA’s board meets in November,
its case may be sent to the Security Council then. To view the resolution,
click here.
New estimates on Iran’s nuclear progress
In August 2005, reports
circulated that the U.S. intelligence community had recently finished
a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)
on Iran. The NIC reportedly concludes that Iran will probably not
produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb until “early
to mid-next decade.” This timeline is longer than previous
estimates, which placed Iran within five years of the ability to
produce nuclear weapons. Surprisingly, Israeli estimates of Iran’s
nuclear status have also been adjusted. According to a report in
the Jerusalem Post, Israel now believes that Iran will probably have
a nuclear weapon between 2008 and 2012. Previously, Israel estimated
that Iran would have its first nuclear weapon between 2007 and 2009.
The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
released a study estimating that Iran could have enough weapon-grade
uranium for a single nuclear weapon within five years, assuming that
Iran devotes itself entirely to that end. However, IISS considers
it more likely that Iran would choose to improve its capability for
making nuclear fuel incrementally over a period of ten or 15 years,
before deciding whether to acquire nuclear weapons.
Nuclear activities that are a cause for concern
Iran’s plan to produce 19.7% enriched uranium metal at the UCF
has sets off alarm bells, as there are few civilian uses for such material,
though the work would prove applicable to making weapon-grade uranium
metal. And previous experiments with polonium-210, a material Iran
has claimed it planned to use in nuclear batteries, is better adapted
for use with beryllium to trigger nuclear weapons. Further fueling
suspicions, Iran reportedly sought to procure large quantities of beryllium
in the early 1990s, the period during which it conducted experiments
with polonium.