FAQ: Avoiding an October Sanctions Surprise That Would Empower Tehran

September 7, 2023

Author: 

Behnam Ben Taleblu

Publication: 

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Q: What’s all the fuss about lapsing international restrictions on Iran this October?

A: Pursuant to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2231 enshrining it, two different sets of penalties on Iran are scheduled to lapse, or “sunset,” this October. These restrictions are largely but not exclusively tied to Tehran’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile proliferation efforts. Skeptics of the JCPOA have long warned about these and other sunsets as fatal flaws of the JCPOA. The expiration of these restrictions will have lasting implications for U.S. national security and for those interested in restraining Iran’s missile, military, and nuclear programs.

As Iran’s nuclear violations, ballistic missile testing, and arms proliferation grew in scale and scope since 2021 — to include Iran’s provision of drones to Russia for use against Ukraine — the saliency of preventing the lapsing of these restrictions also grew, including for parties still in the JCPOA, such as the E3 (France, Germany, and the UK). To that effect, earlier this summer, European diplomats reportedly cited this changing international context and informed Iran that they would not be easing select JCPOA-related sanctions this fall.

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Read the full FAQ on the Foundation for Defense of Democracies website.