Briefing with Sean McCormack on Concerns of an Industrial-Scale Iranian Enrichment Program (Excerpts)

October 23, 2006

MR. MCCORMACK: I don't have any opening statements, so we can get right into your questions. Who wants to start off?

QUESTION: Anything on the Secretary's meeting with ElBaradei?

MR. MCCORMACK: She -- they talked about a few different topics, talked a little bit about North Korea, talked about Iran, talked about the issue of fuel assurances. We have very similar views in terms of international fuel supply guarantees. The President has made a bunch of proposals in that regard. Mr. ElBaradei has some thoughts on it, so they covered that.

On North Korea they talked really about the issue of implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1718. The Secretary filled him in on her conversations from her recent trip last week to northeast Asia and the reception she got -- a very positive one -- from other countries about how to work together to implement 1718.

On Iran, they had a general discussion where we stand right now, and UN member countries' efforts to pass a UN Security Council resolution that would impose some sanctions on Iran. So that was really sort of the tone and tenor of their conversation.

QUESTION: Where do we stand right now on Iran?

MR. MCCORMACK: In terms of Iran, we are working with the Security Council members, the so called P-3, the English and the French, on a Security Council resolution. We don't have, yet, a full text of a resolution. I think that there's fairly widespread agreement on what the elements of that resolution will be, sort of working out, now, talk to the P-5 about a resolution. I think that will probably happen over the next couple of days. Once you do that, you expand the circle out even further and start working with the other members of the Security Council. And then we will have a broader discussion on that matter, which I would expect will take a little bit of time.

QUESTION: On the P-5 discussions, you -- we talked last week and a little bit I think the week before about that there were discussions among the P-5. So is it because you just have so many other issues right now with North Korea and other things on the docket, or are you still at loggerheads in terms of narrowing down what kind of sanctions would go into this resolution?

MR. MCCORMACK: No, I think there's -- among the P-3, we, the French and the British, think that there's agreement -- widespread agreement, although not total agreement, on the elements of a resolution as well as how this resolution might relate to further diplomatic efforts. And we have also been consulting with the Chinese as well as the Russians on this all along, although, the core conversations have been among the P-3.

So there have been a lot of other things on the Security Council docket. The North Korea resolution, yes, I think did push off a bit more formal discussions on Iran, although those have now been taking place. And I would expect that this is going to be one of the top items on the Security Council calendar for the next several weeks.

QUESTION: Is it your understanding that Russia and China are on board for some kind of resolution which would call for sanctions against Iran?

MR. MCCORMACK: Well, that was their commitment. That was their previous commitment. There's nothing -- there haven't been any new discussions in that regard. The Secretary obviously talked a little bit about this on her stop in Moscow, but there's nothing new in terms of that commitment. There was a commitment -- we all know the history of that -- so we're going to be pushing forward on a Chapter 7 resolution coming up here in the next couple of weeks.

QUESTION: Sean, diplomats in Vienna are now saying about the time of the meeting this morning that Iran had expanded its nuclear program by hooking up a second centrifuge. Did that come up in the meeting with ElBaradei and does that affect the U.S. position at all?

MR. MCCORMACK: I have to -- no, I wasn't in this particular meeting so I don't -- I can't give you a full readout. We'll check to see if that issue was touched upon.

In terms of what's going on on the ground in Iran, the IAEA has the eyes on what's happening there. They do have inspectors that continue to be there. I can't tell you whether or not they have expanded from the 164-centrifuge cascade to something larger, but that has been our concern all along is that the Iranians are, it seems inexorably at this point, moving forward on expanding the number of centrifuges in these cascades and then linking those cascades up so that at some point in the future you will have industrial-scale production. You don't want that. You don't want that for a lot of different reasons. One, you don't want them to get good at enrichment and mastering the techniques and the know-how of enrichment. It's more -- this is science and art, and you acquire that knowledge through experience.

And you also don't want them to expand to industrial-scale production, because that would be -- that would be something that would be quite alarming for the rest of the world because that means that you are able to start to produce, or at least have the capability to produce, large amounts of highly enriched uranium, which leads you to the building blocks for a nuclear weapon.

So our position on this matter is clear. The Secretary has reiterated that. We call upon Iran to suspend all their enrichment and reprocessing related activities. That is the position not only of the United States but of the P-5+1 as well, and the Security Council.

QUESTION: Any other signs of Iranian developments since the August 31st resolution and are they pressing ahead as --

MR. MCCORMACK: To my knowledge, they are pressing ahead with their program. I can't offer you specifics as to, you know, how often they are running, spinning their centrifuges, how much gas they're introducing into them or whether or not they're expanding them. I don't have the details for you on that. But we do believe they are moving forward on their program.

Sylvie.

QUESTION: The Iranians this weekend made several statements and including President Ahmadi-Nejad today, but this weekend the Foreign Minister said that if the international community would sanction, we will take appropriate measures.

MR. MCCORMACK: Right.

QUESTION: How do you assess the risk for the sanctions to give way to an influence, negative influence of Iran in Middle East, in Iraq, in the Palestinian territories --

MR. MCCORMACK: Well, they're already --

QUESTION: Like on --

MR. MCCORMACK: They are already doing that. They're already doing that. They already are a negative influence in the region. I think the rest of the world and especially Iran's neighbors would very much like for Iran to play a positive role in the region. Iran as a country and as a culture has a lot to offer, has a lot to offer the rest of the world, has a lot to offer the rest of the region.

But the situation you have now, given Iranian behavior and under the current leadership, you have Iran really on the other side of the line from where the rest of the region is heading. The rest of the region is heading towards greater openness, greater freedoms, greater democracy, looking for solutions to avoid conflict, to work out differences through dialogue. Whereas, you have the Iranian regime which is just headed the other way. They're the sponsors of Hezbollah, which started a war in the region. They are clearly playing an unhelpful role in Iraq. The Iraqi Government has talked to them about that. They are probably the most significant state sponsors of terror in the world and they are now working to develop a nuclear weapon, which if they accomplish that would be probably one of the single most destabilizing events that we have ever seen in the Middle East.

So Iran already is playing, unfortunately, a negative role in the region and Iran's neighbors, more than anybody else, are concerned about that and have spoken out about it.

QUESTION: But this is a real threat so it could be worse. That's what they are saying. It could be even worse.

MR. MCCORMACK: Well, you know, again, I don't think that that argues in favor of not doing anything with respect to their nuclear program. As I said, it could get worse, absolutely. It could get a heck of a lot worse if you have a nuclear-armed Iran in the heart of the Middle East. Think about that. And Iran's neighbors have been thinking about that and they are alarmed at the prospect. The rest of the world, the international community is alarmed by that prospect. That's why you had -- that's why you had a Security Council resolution that was passed that called upon them to suspend all their enrichment and reprocessing- related activities. And you've also had others who looked at what happened when Hezbollah started a war in the Middle East and were quite concerned about that fact, quite concerned about the fact that a terrorist group sponsored by Iran could drag the entire region down into conflict. That got people's attention.

And I think that in terms of Iranian behavior, there is a lot of concern over a variety of things. I haven't even mentioned human rights and the just terrible record that this regime has on human rights and the way it treats its own people. So there's a lot to be concerned about concerning this regime's behavior. And certainly looking the other way because they might do -- they might lash out in some other way is certainly not how we're going to respond. And I don't think you're going to see the rest of the world turn a blind eye, because that is just -- once you start going down that pathway that is a pathway that just leads to a very, very negative place.

Yeah.

QUESTION: Sean, just a few moments ago you acknowledged that the activity on North Korea at the Security Council had probably pushed back action on Iran somewhat. And then you stated that you expected the subject of Iran to dominate at the UN Security Council for, as you put it, the next several weeks.

MR. MCCORMACK: Next few weeks, yeah.

QUESTION: So should we not expect a resolution to be adopted in the next several -- in the next few -- before three weeks?

MR. MCCORMACK: Well, we're looking for a resolution as soon as we can get one. We think it would be certainly positive if we get a resolution this week. Is that likely? That's not likely just because, as I have said before, we will witness the sine curve of hope and despair which is the negotiating process in the Security Council over resolutions, and there are strong feelings on this. This is just passage of a resolution, putting Iran under sanctions, puts Iran in a pretty exclusive club, not a very positive exclusive club but an exclusive club nonetheless. And people have views about that. But there's an agreement that we are going down this pathway, and the reason why we're going down this pathway is because this is the pathway that Iran has opened up for the rest of the world. There's a very positive offer that was put down before them. And all they were asked to do -- all they were asked to do was to suspend their enrichment-related activities in order to negotiate. They weren't being asked to subscribe or sign onto a particular outcome of negotiations. All they were asked to do was to suspend their enrichment-related activity so that they could get into negotiations and talk about a very attractive package that was laid out before them. And within the confines of that discussion you could raise a lot of different topics and we would be at the table talking to them about that.

So that -- you know, an entirely, I would put to you, reasonable offer put to the Iranian regime. One in which they could realize the benefits that they say that they want to realize from a peaceful nuclear regime, while giving the international community some objective assurances and reassuring it that they're not developing a nuclear weapon. But instead they have chosen another pathway, and we're fully prepared to go down that diplomatic pathway, which leads to sanctions.

QUESTION: You said there's fairly widespread agreement on what should be in the resolution.

MR. MCCORMACK: Right.

QUESTION: The last we had heard from you was that --

MR. MCCORMACK: Among the P-3.

QUESTION: Among the P-3, okay. Can you tell us any more than you did, I guess about ten days ago, when you told us that Nick Burns had in his videoconference with his counterparts succeeded in short of whittling down the large -- the two-page menu into a subset. Where are we at in that process now would you say?

MR. MCCORMACK: I think we have -- we have in mind what might -- what the components of that resolution might be, what the specific areas of sanction might be and all the various other language that goes around it. It's not put down on paper yet. I don't have -- I'm not going to offer any specifics at this point because that's part of the negotiating process. You don't -- we try not to negotiate the specifics of these resolutions too much in public. It inevitably happens. I know you're disappointed. Why not, right?

QUESTION: You never know. You might try it, since the other one is taking so much longer.

MR. MCCORMACK: Yeah, you know --

QUESTION: (Inaudible.)

MR. MCCORMACK: Yeah. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that that might not make the process easier, it might extend it out a bit.

QUESTION: Can I ask simply whether there is agreement that this round of sanctions should target Iran's WMD program? Is that agreed upon?

MR. MCCORMACK: James, I'm not going to talk about the specifics, but that is our initial focus. As the Secretary has made clear, we don't -- you don't start off with the most Draconian sanctions, because the idea here is you want Iran and the Iranian regime to change its behavior. And you also don't want to hurt the Iranian people. They are -- they are the, if you will, biggest losers out of all this because you have a regime that's taking them down this negative pathway whereas they could be realizing greater benefits through greater exchanges and openness with the rest of the world.

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