The Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has scrapped its way into a sixth year of life. But the accord is increasingly tenuous as Iran violates key restrictions in response to unilateral U.S. sanctions preventing the economic normalisation the agreement was designed to deliver. The outgoing Trump administration insisted that its “maximum pressure” strategy would deliver a superior nuclear agreement. Not only did the coercion fail, but it also reversed the significant non-proliferation gains the agreement had secured and prompted a more aggressive Iranian regional posture. The incoming Biden administration should swiftly re-enter the deal, if Iran reverses its JCPOA breaches. This is the best way to avoid a nuclear crisis early in its tenure, restore transatlantic cooperation, facilitate the financial dividends the agreement was meant to deliver to the Iranian people and provide a foundation for future negotiations on matters outside the JCPOA’s nuclear portfolio.

When the JCPOA was originally concluded, its limits were its strengths. The agreement put front and centre the strategic concern shared by the U.S. and other world powers: curbing Iran’s nuclear program. These powers had other concerns about Iran as well, chiefly its ballistic missile program and Middle East power projection, but they recognised that the gravest threat it could pose to international peace and security was that it might develop a nuclear weapon. The Trump administration took a different approach: in its view, putting the Islamic Republic under economic siege would squeeze greater concessions out of Tehran on its nuclear program and also with regard to the other concerns. The economic toll on Iran has been severe – three years of recession in a row – and the deal’s remaining participants have been unable to relieve the pain. 

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Read the full report at the International Crisis Group.