Diplomacy has only a narrow window of opportunity, as the nuclear debate inside Iran remains volatile.

Both Iran and the US have declared that they are willing to come back into full compliance with the nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, as each side is waiting for the other to take the first step, there is an increasing risk of ending up with no nuclear compromise at all. Europeans should be careful not to overestimate Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s readiness to hold on to the JCPOA while underestimating the role of nuclear discourse in the Islamic Republic.

There has been a lively public debate in Iranian politics on nuclear issues since 2002, with vastly differing positions on which diplomatic approach would suit Iran’s national interests best. These debates have been an essential part of nuclear decision-shaping for the past two decades. As the main responsibility for the nuclear file was transferred from Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization to the Supreme National Security Council, a multilevel process of formal and informal consultations was put in place that was meant to aid the Supreme Leader in his decision-making. Public political discourse continuously fed into that process.

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Read the rest of the commentary at the Royal United Services Institute.