This January, Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) embarked on the difficult road towards Transition Day – October 18, 2023, or earlier if the IAEA can reach a Broader Conclusion that all of Iran’s nuclear materials and facilities are for peaceful purposes and it is not engaged in any undeclared nuclear activities. There are several incentives for Iran to try to reach Transition Day long before the eight-year mark.

Depending on Iran’s level of cooperation and the IAEA’s findings, a Broader Conclusion could technically be achieved in less than four years. At that point, Iran will be a nuclear-threshold state, with all the regional and international security implications that entails. Tehran will be able to produce enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon quickly, and at a time when elements of the JCPOA monitoring regime are being rolled back.

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Read the full report at Foundation for Defense of Democracies: http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/olli-heinonen1-legitimizing-irans-nuclear-program-with-a-broader-conclusion1/