When George W. Bush assumed the presidency in January 2001, the United States was at the apex of its global power. The Soviet Union was no more, Russia was just emerging from economic chaos, and China was years away from posing a major challenge. In this unipolar moment, one of the highest-priority security threats was the acquisition of nuclear weapons by weak U.S. adversaries — so-called rogue states like Iraq, Iran, North Korea, and Libya.

Yet even here, the situation was not so bad. Iraq’s nuclear program was on hold as a result of the sanctions and inspections regime imposed after the Gulf War, Iran was actively seeking nuclear weapons but had not yet produced significant amounts of fissile material, North Korea’s nuclear program was largely in check due to a deal struck by the Clinton administration, and Libya had nuclear aspirations but little technical progress to show for it.

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Read the full commentary at War on the Rocks.