Six charts show Iran’s historical and projected breakout timelines, enrichment capacities, and enriched uranium stocks from the 2000s until 2031. The charts encompass the periods before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), during the JCPOA’s initial years, during Iran’s period of violations following the United States’ exit, and after a possible re-implementation in 2023. This long timespan shows the benefits and drawbacks of a JCPOA. The graphs show that the JCPOA limits Iran’s enriched uranium stocks far longer than its enrichment capacity, even though with the latter, it can quickly reconstitute the former. They also show Iran’s intent to build a large enrichment program legitimized by the JCPOA, able to produce unprecedented stocks of enriched uranium, leading to breakout timelines measured in days rather than months, when major nuclear limitations end. In fact, earlier enrichment capabilities, which caused great international concern, are less than those capabilities permitted after 2025 under the JCPOA.
Read the rest of the report at the Institute for Science and International Security.