Rather than choosing between diplomacy and military action, the Trump administration should think of these options as mutually supportive, sequencing its actions in hopes of achieving the best and least costly outcome.

Executive Summary

The Iran that confronts President Trump in January 2025 will be more vulnerable than at any time since 1979, but also closer than ever to possessing a nuclear weapon. At the same time, Israel may be on the verge of conducting military strikes against Iran’s nuclear program. Working closely with Israel, other regional partners, and the so-called E3 (France, Germany, and the UK), the Trump administration should use the window of opportunity before the JCPOA’s “snapback” provision expires in late 2025 to coordinate military, economic, and diplomatic pressure against Iran with the goal of securing a comprehensive set of diplomatic agreements superior to the 2015 nuclear deal. The administration should simultaneously prepare for military strikes should that diplomacy fail.

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Read the full article at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy website.