With only a few weeks before the May 12 deadline for US sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program is set to be waived, there is little doubt Washington will eventually walk out of the deal. Since the beginning of his election campaign President Trump consistently criticized the Iran deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). During his presidency he has gradually undermined the agreement. His new cabinet members – National Security Advisor John Bolton and the nominee for the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – unlike their predecessors, seem inclined to support the President’s effort to leave the JCPOA.

The Europeans, in particular the British, French and Germans, often referred to as the E3, have found themselves between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand they want to save the JCPOA; on the other, they don’t want to undermine transatlantic solidarity. The E3 were right to try negotiating with the current US administration to keep it in the deal. Yet it is high time to realize that demands from Washington are impossible to meet without violating the JCPOA, which was based on separation of nuclear issues from other concerns. The US withdrawal is imminent and Europe has to decide what to do next.

Considering the fragile domestic support for the JCPOA in Iran, it is likely that the country will walk out of the deal once its leadership decides that the agreement does not provide promised economic benefits. Some Iranian parliamentarians are even discussing the merits of Iran leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty, an unlikely yet disturbing scenario.

The only way to prevent this from happening is to try to keep the core bargain of the deal without US participation. This will require close cooperation between all remaining parties to the deal – the EU, the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China.

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Read the full article at European Leadership Network.