We would like to first explain why we are issuing another report on the Natanz explosion. As we continue to obtain and receive newer and more detailed information, we believe that we are gaining a clearer understanding of this event, leading us to update our analyses. The difficulty lies in determining where exactly the detonation occurred and its source characteristics, given the determination of Iran to so far keep the public in the dark as well as the initial shortage of high-resolution overhead imagery. Today’s analysis represents a new possibility, described below, deriving from the new capability to create 3-D stereoscopic pairs with those overhead images taken at different viewing angles, allowing additional details to be ascertained. We welcome comments and any additional information that can get us closer to the full truth of the matter.

Immediately subsequent to our most recent satellite imagery report on the damage observable at the Natanz Iran Centrifuge Assembly Center (ICAC), which described a possible crater located at the northwest corner of the ICAC, we became aware that Maxar had just released a very high resolution satellite image from July 8, 2020. With that new image, the Institute was able to combine it with previous commercial satellite images from the 4th and 5th of July in a 3-D stereoscopic pair, whereby it was then possible to detect the presence of a below grade feature that was not previously determinable from the individual 2-D images when viewed separately. Figures 1 – 3 show the results.

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Read the full report at the Institute for Science and International Security.