On October 13, 2017, President Trump announced his decision not to certify the JCPOA, in contrast to his previous two decisions to certify the deal. Perhaps the most notable feature of the new policy is that it covers the entirety of Iran’s behavior that is viewed negatively by the US, beyond the nuclear program. In so doing, the administration has ended the approach of the Obama administration that sought to create a divide between the nuclear and regional manifestations of Iran’s conduct, claiming that the nuclear deal “was working,” and that it was never meant to address other issues. Overall, there are important elements in the administration’s new policy that have the potential to reverse some of the negative aspects of the JCPOA. The stated aim is to strengthen the deal, and restore US deterrence vis-à-vis the Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards. The outcome, however, is far from guaranteed.

Read the full article at the Institute for National Security Studies.