What the Latest IAEA Reports Mean for the Future of the Iran Nuclear Deal

June 9, 2020

Weapon Program: 

  • Nuclear

Author: 

Mark Fitzpatrick

Publication: 

Responsible Statecraft

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on June 5 detailed the latest ways that Iran has exceeded limits agreed to under the 2015 nuclear deal and failed to cooperate with monitoring obligations that predate the accord. The agency also listed the ways that Iran continues to honor both its ongoing safeguards obligations and additional verification measures agreed to by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. While it would be Pollyannaish to call the glass half full, it would be flatly wrong to call the glass empty.

For starters, it must be acknowledged that Iran’s steady departure from the JCPOA limits are a measured reaction to the Trump administration’s refusal since May 2018 to honor its own obligations to the accord. Iran began last summer to exceed the 202.8 kg limit on low enriched uranium (commonly expressed as 300 kg of uranium hexaflouride, UF6). It has now accumulated 1,571.6 kg, although 483 kg of that amount is enriched only up to 2 percent or less, far from the 90 percent needed for a bomb. Subtracting the latter leaves 1,085 of useful material, which if further enriched to weapons grade, a process that would take several months, is theoretically enough for one nuclear weapon.

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Read the full article at Responsible Statecraft.