Iran’s nuclear program has stirred geopolitical tensions; roiled energy markets; and preoccupied policy makers, investors, NGOs, and academics for two decades. Despite assurances from Tehran that its nuclear activities have been peaceful, global concerns about Iran’s ambitions to build a bomb remain. Three US administrations have tried to formulate a policy designed to keep Iran away from a nuclear weapon while academics have debated the merits of the existing scholarship in helping configure a sound response to the regime’s plans. Global energy and financial systems are also implicated, as tensions around Iran’s nuclear program have affected oil markets and investment decisions for over a decade.

Yet, the topic of Iran’s nuclear decision-making is a relatively underdeveloped field, especially compared with a substantive body of scholarship and policy analysis pertaining to other aspects of Iran’s foreign policy in general and its nuclear program in particular. As part of Columbia University’s work on Iran’s nuclear program, this paper explores how Tehran determines the direction of the country’s nuclear program and its implications for US and international efforts to keep the Islamic Republic away from the bomb. To this end, the author, through research and firsthand interviews, seeks to answer the following questions in this paper: What drives Iran’s nuclear thinking? Which key power centers draw the contours of the country’s nuclear policy? Answering these questions is critical because as Iran continues to shrink the time needed to acquire enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, the United States and the rest of the international community once again find themselves looking for effective ways to block the regime’s pathways to the bomb.

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Read the full report at the Center on Global Energy Policy.