Last month’s Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program have spurred debate regarding how much the program has been set back and whether Tehran will be further incentivized to go for the bomb. The answer is far from straightforward.

Israel reportedly struck about a dozen sites tied to Iran’s nuclear program and killed nearly twenty nuclear scientists—many engaged in weapons-related research. In addition, U.S. B-2 bombers dropped 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) on the nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz, while submarine-launched cruise missiles struck Isfahan.

Experience has shown that it is difficult to destroy industrial sites from the air. Equipment pulled from the rubble can often be repaired or cannibalized and returned to service. However, the gas centrifuges that Iran uses to enrich uranium are finely tuned, delicate pieces of equipment that are easily damaged. According to Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the centrifuges at Natanz and Fordow were still spinning on the eve of the war. An uncontrolled shutdown would cause centrifuges to self-destruct; this is apparently how Israel sabotaged Natanz in 2021 and why it bombed the facility’s power source at the outset of the war last month. 

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See full text at the Washington Institute: After the Bombing: Iran’s Nuclear Options