The presidency of Hassan Rouhani has been greeted with assertions ranging from cautious optimism to euphoric anticipations of an unfolding rapprochement. President Rouhani has been at times described as a reformer, a pragmatist and by his critics as a "wolf in sheep's clothing." Although it is often suggested that President Rouhani is under significant pressure from hardline elements at home, the Islamic Republic appears to have established a consensus on its core security concerns. That consensus may prove fragile, and subject to internal censure, but the notion that Rouhani is under political stress is overstated.

Despite its softer rhetoric, we can count on the new Iranian regime to continue asserting its nuclear "rights" and press its advantages in a contested Middle East. The Islamic Republic will remain an important backer of the Assad Dynasty, a benefactor of Hezbollah and a supporter of Palestinian rejectionist groups. It will persist with its repressive tactics and deny its populace their fundamental human rights. It is also a government that will seek a negotiated settlement on the nuclear issue and will strive to test the limits of the great powers' prohibitions.