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Weak or strong, comprehensive or limited, any deal will take several years if not decades to implement. In many countries of the region, the status quo will make way for a nuclear Iran. No countries, rhetoric aside, supports preemptive strikes against Iranian nuclear sites unless there is overwhelming evidence of further Iranian deception. Iran will be under tremendous pressure to comply with a comprehensive agreement, but has no apparent intention of slowing down its drive to achieve broader regional goals, which often conflicts with U.S. and allied security interests. If a deal is reached, there are several implications to keep in mind.

First, an agreement will give a much-needed boost to the Iranian economy. By most accounts, Iran stands to gain access to nearly $100 billion dollars frozen in foreign banks, as well as billions more as oil export restrictions are lifted. At the same time, several EU countries appear poised to return to Iranian markets, adding billions of dollars more in potential foreign direct investment and trade. All of this will provide the leaders of the Iran Threat Network with the resources they need to gradually return to previous levels of operational activity. It means funding proxies that were either cut off or cut back due to sanctions; reassessing the ongoing closure or downsizing of Iranian embassies in non-traditional areas such as Latin America; expanding joint military training and security programs in Africa; and increasing funding for HAMAS, PIJ, and the new Palestinian coalition government.

Second, several countries in the Gulf should expect to see a resumption of covert activity, including training, weapons, and non-lethal support to local proxies, especially in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, where Iran has a history of supporting Shia opposition movements. The GCC countries will also have to confront the growing threats posed by Iran in the area of Computer Network Exploitation operations. Iranian hackers employed primarily by the MOIS target the computer systems of U.S. and Gulf personnel, companies, and government facilities. Iran has treated past Stuxnet attacks on centrifuges at Natanz as a declaration of cyber war, and is now responding in kind.

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Even if sanctions and diplomacy lead to a nuclear agreement with Iran, the activities of the Iran Threat Network will continue to pose significant obstacles to Iran’s diplomatic outreach to the Gulf and the West. In some cases, lethal support to Shia opposition groups across the region also threatens both U.S. and international security.

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