Iran is highly unlikely to be able to deploy an operational intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) within the next decade, according to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). To build an ICBM, Iran could first develop an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) based on its Sejjil-2, a two-stage, solid-fuel system, or on a liquid-fuel system. According to IISS, Iran is unlikely to produce an operational IRBM within the next five years. Iran instead could proceed directly to ICBM production, which could be completed by 2019 at the earliest, according to IISS, but would involve significant technical risk.
News Briefs
November 14, 2013
-- United Press International
November 11, 2013
Iran displayed a new medium-range surface-to-air missile (SAM), the Sayyad-2, that will soon enter production. According to Jane’s Defense Weekly, the Sayyad-2 uses the airframe of the American RIM-66 (SM-1) naval SAM and is fired from a truck-mounted launcher. Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan described the missile as a high-altitude, medium-range SAM that is designed to work with the Talash interception system.
-- Jane's Defense Weekly
November 11, 2013
Iran has agreed to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency "managed access" within the next three months to the Gchine uranium mine and to a heavy water production plant that will supply the Arak reactor. Iran will also provide information on its plans to build additional nuclear facilities. The accord does not involve inspections of the Parchin military facility, where the IAEA suspects Iran may have previously conducted nuclear weaponization research.
-- Washington Post
November 9, 2013
Nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 ended in Geneva without a deal. The parties failed to reach agreement on an initial proposal that would have required Iran to freeze its nuclear program for six months in exchange for some sanctions relief. There was some disagreement within the P5+1, with France objecting to a deal that would allow construction on a heavy water reactor to continue and that would put an insufficient cap on Iran's continued uranium enrichment. However, all sides agreed that significant progress had been made in narrowing differences. The parties will meet again in ten days at the level of political director.
-- New York Times
October 25, 2013
U.S. authorities indicted Reza Olangian of Los Gatos, California on charges of attempting to acquire and transfer surface-to-air missiles to Iran, including to Iran's Ministry of Defense. According to the criminal complaint, Olangian was negotiating a deal in 2012 for a missile system with a confidential source for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, who was posing as a Russian arms broker. Olangian, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen, was arrested in Tallinn, Estonia in October 2012 and extradited to the United States last March. He is being held in Manhattan pending a November 13 hearing.
-- Associated Press
October 16, 2013
Nuclear negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran ended with the parties announcing another meeting on November 7 and 8 in Geneva. No details about the discussion, or any Iranian concessions, were released, but official reactions were generally positive. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton called the talks "substantive and forward looking." A Russian foreign ministry official said the talks were "better than many people thought, but worse than what we hoped for," and a senior U.S. official said that the P5+1 "got more today than we've ever gotten, but there's a whole lot more we need to get."
-- Associated Press
October 10, 2013
The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), an exiled Iranian opposition group, stated that Iran is moving a nuclear weaponization research center called "SPND" to a defense ministry complex about 1 mile away from its current location. The NCRI claims that about 100 researchers and engineers work at the center, which allegedly conducts small-scale experiments with radioactive materials. According to the NCRI, Iran is moving the center in order to avoid a visit by U.N. inspectors.
-- Reuters
October 6, 2013
President Barack Obama said that Iran is still "a year or more" away from having the capacity and knowledge to build a nuclear weapon, according to U.S. intelligence. Obama noted that the U.S. judgment differs from the Israelis', who believe Tehran is only months away from reaching nuclear weapons capability.
-- Associated Press
October 1, 2013
Iran's foreign exchange reserves have fallen from $90 billion to no more than $70 billion in the last nine months and only $15 billion may be immediately accessible, according to experts. Research by Roubini Global Economics and the Foundation for Defense of Democracies shows that much of Iran's reserves are deposited in overseas accounts and can only be used to purchase products in in these countries.
-- YNet News
September 23, 2013
Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's atomic energy organization, announced that Russia would hand over control of the 1,000-megawatt Bushehr nuclear reactor to Iran on September 23. Russian experts will remain at the plant for an additional two years to provide technical assistance. Moscow is also providing the plant with nuclear fuel for ten years, with Iran committing to return the spent fuel.
-- Agence France-Presse via Fox News