Iran's Oil Exports to Slide in May, but Not to Zero

May 3, 2019


Dmitry Zhdannikov and Alex Lawler



The amount of petroleum that Iran exports is expected to decrease in May as a result of U.S. sanctions. Sanctions imposed in November have already halved Iran's oil exports to approximately 1 million barrels per day (bpd). An Iranian official estimated that the country would export between 500,000 and 700,000 thousand bpd from May onward, while an official with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) placed the number between 400,000 and 600,000 bpd. Iran's decision to stop reporting oil production figures to OPEC and the fact that Iranian tankers have been switching off their automatic tracking system (AIS) signals makes it difficult to assess Iran's export volume.