May 4, 2026
Publication:
Reuters
U.S. intelligence assessments of the time required for Iran to build a nuclear weapon have remained unchanged from summer 2025 despite the recent U.S.-Iran fighting. Following the Iran-Israel war in June 2025 and the accompanying U.S. strikes on Iran's Esfahan, Natanz, and Fordow nuclear sites, U.S. intelligence agencies estimated the timeline to be one year. Before the June 2025 war, they had estimated it to be nine months. U.S. and Israeli attacks in the 2026 war focused on Iran's conventional military capabilities rather than its nuclear program, although Israel struck some nuclear targets.
