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This month’s newsletter features an update to a report estimating how quickly Iran could enrich enough uranium to fuel a small nuclear arsenal. The update reflects data from the most recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports, which indicate that Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium is sufficient to fuel five nuclear weapons if enriched further to weapons-grade. Iran’s installed centrifuges could achieve the required enrichment in less than a week.
The newsletter also includes profiles of companies and individuals that have carried out procurement in China for Iran’s ballistic missile program, as well as news about the IAEA’s censure of Iran for failing to cooperate with the Agency’s nuclear safeguards investigation, Iran’s response to the censure, and an Iraqi fuel smuggling network that brings in $1 billion in annual revenue for Iran and its proxies. Additions to the Iran Watch library include reports related to the IAEA’s Board of Governors meeting, new U.S. sanctions and export enforcement actions, and U.S. and Iranian reactions to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria.
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PUBLICATIONS
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi delivers opening remarks at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting. (Credit: Dean Calma / IAEA)
Articles and Reports | Iran’s Nuclear Timetable: The Weapon Potential
The latest reports from the IAEA indicate that Iran has stockpiled enough uranium enriched to 60% purity to fuel five nuclear weapons if enriched further to weapons-grade. Iran’s installed centrifuges at Natanz could achieve the required enrichment in less than one week. For that uranium to be usable in a nuclear weapons arsenal, however, the other components of the weapons would have to be ready to receive it. Weaponization activities could take anywhere from several months to a year or more, although the timeframe is uncertain.
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ENTITIES OF CONCERN
Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) carries out procurement for its ballistic missile program using companies and individuals based in China.
An Iranian procurement agent; leads a network that has facilitated the acquisition of accelerometers and gyroscopes for Beijing Shiny Nights Technology Development Co., Ltd. (Beijing SNTD), a China-based MODAFL front company.
Buy Best Electronic Pars Company
An electronics importer with offices in China, Iran, and Turkey; under the supervision of Saeed Hamidi Javar, has procured items for Iran's Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO); has a Turkey-based affiliate, Buybest Elektronik Ithalat Ihracat Limited Sirketi.
An employee of Beijing SNTD; has coordinated with Saeed Hamidi Javar to procure goods sought by Iran for its ballistic missile program.
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IN THE NEWS
Iran launches a Simorgh satellite. (Credit: Tasnim News Agency)
Iran Successfully Launches Fakhr-1 Satellite into Orbit | Tasnim News Agency
December 6, 2024: Iran’s regular army launched a Fakhr-1 nanosatellite, a Saman-1 orbital transfer vehicle, and a research payload into low-Earth orbit using a Simorgh carrier rocket. The Fakhr-1 satellite was designed and built by the Iranian Army, SA Iran Corporation, and Malek Ashtar University of Technology. The 300 kg payload was the heaviest yet delivered to orbit by Iran's space program.
Fuel Oil Smuggling Network Rakes in $1 Billion for Iran and Its Proxies | Reuters
December 3, 2024: A fuel oil smuggling network operating in Iraq has been generating at least $1 billion a year for Iran and its proxies since 2022 by diverting oil allocated to asphalt plants at subsidized prices. Between 3.4 and 5 million barrels of heavy fuel oil is illicitly exported from the plants every month, mostly to Asia. The illicit exports benefit the Iraqi paramilitary force and political party Asaib Ahl Al-Haq (AAH), which is supported by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Kataib Hezbollah, another IRGC-backed Iraqi group, also controls some plants involved in the diversion scheme. Some of the exported fuel oil is blended with Iranian oil to help Iran evade sanctions.
Iran Plans New Uranium-Enrichment Expansion, IAEA Report Says | Reuters
November 28, 2024: According to a confidential International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report, Iran plans to install more than 6,000 additional centrifuges at its Natanz and Fordow uranium enrichment plants. The decision is a response to a recent censure of Iran by the IAEA board. The centrifuges will be installed in 32 cascades of more than 160 machines each and will include a large cascade of 1,152 advanced IR-6 centrifuges in the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz.
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FROM THE LIBRARY
The IAEA’s latest reports on Iran’s nuclear program prompted a resolution to censure Iran at the Agency’s Board of Governors meeting.
- Ahead of the meeting, the Agency circulated its quarterly reports on verification and monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program and the country’s implementation of NPT safeguards – November 19.
- In response to Iran’s ongoing failure to cooperate with the IAEA’s safeguards investigations, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States introduced a censure resolution against Iran, which was adopted in a 19-3 vote – November 21.
- Two days following the resolution, Iran announced that it would expand its uranium enrichment capacity by installing new centrifuges – November 23.
- In early December, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom sent a letter to the U.N. Secretary General stating that they would “use all diplomatic tools to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,” including triggering the snapback of U.N. sanctions if necessary – December 6
The United States took measures to combat Iranian sanctions evasion efforts.
- The U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned 35 ship management companies and vessels associated with various countries for transporting Iranian oil to foreign markets – December 3.
- The U.S. Department of Justice arrested and indicted a U.S.-Iranian dual national on charges of illicitly exporting U.S.-origin electronics to Iran for use in military drones, including drones used in a lethal attack on U.S. servicemembers in Jordan – December 16.
- The United States then sanctioned four entities involved in the illicit export scheme outlined in the indictment – December 18.
The rapid collapse of the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria elicited reactions from Iran and the United States.
- The United States hailed Assad’s downfall and called on rebel leaders to carry out a peaceful transfer of power to an accountable and inclusive government – December 8.
- Iran, which had long supported Assad, similarly called for an inclusive government in Syria and said that it expects the Iran-Syria relationship to continue – December 8.